Resetting Victoria’s Gas Market: Local First, Always

Our Gas, Their Profits

Victoria isn’t short of gas. It’s short of control.

For years, policy failure has left the state exposed—dependent on long-haul supply, hostage to export decisions, and paying inflated prices for its own resources. The result? Households squeezed, industry nervous, and winter supply risks creeping closer.

Fixing it isn’t complicated. It just requires doing what works, cutting what doesn’t, and dropping the fantasy that “the market will sort it out.”

Here’s the real plan.

1. Force Local Supply First — No More Hoping

Western Australia proved something simple: if you want domestic gas, you mandate it.

Their policy requires LNG exporters to reserve gas equivalent to 15% of production for local use, backed by actual delivery infrastructure. No loopholes, no wishful thinking—locals get supply first.

Victoria needs the same on the east coast:
A hard domestic reservation scheme tied to pipeline access, approvals, and market participation.

Because right now, Victoria is effectively last in line—relying on surplus gas drifting down from Queensland exports. When exporters ship more offshore, locals get squeezed. That’s not a market—it’s a design flaw.

2. Build the Missing Backbone — Pipelines, Storage, Peak Capacity

Even if gas exists, it’s useless if it can’t get where it’s needed when it’s needed.

Victoria’s system is fragile:

Heavy reliance on interstate flows
Limited storage buffers
Tight peak-day capacity during winter

Forecasts are already warning:

Peak-day shortfalls from 2028
Structural supply gaps from 2029

That’s not a future problem—that’s a countdown.

Fix it with:

Expanded pipeline capacity into southern markets
More storage to smooth seasonal demand
Firm peak-day delivery capability

WA tied reservation to infrastructure. Victoria needs to do the same or stay exposed.

3. Stop Burning Premium Gas Where It’s Not Needed

Using high-value gas for basic household heating is like fuelling a lawnmower with aviation fuel.

Victoria already knows this:

Electrification + efficiency could save 44 PJ/year by 2035
That’s roughly 85% of current industrial demand

This isn’t ideology—it’s supply strategy.

Every home shifted to electric heating or hot water:

Frees up gas
Reduces peak pressure
Stabilises the system

Gas should go where it’s hardest to replace—not where it’s easiest.

4. Prioritise Who Actually Gets Gas

In a tight system, pretending all demand is equal is how everything breaks.

Victoria needs gas triage:

Priority: high-heat industry, manufacturing, grid backup, essential services
Deprioritise: low-value residential and replaceable uses

This isn’t controversial—it’s already acknowledged in state energy planning.

It just hasn’t been enforced properly.

5. Approve Practical Supply — Or Accept Shortages

You can’t block supply, delay infrastructure, and still expect reliability.

That’s how you manufacture a crisis.

The fix isn’t “approve everything.” It’s:

Fast-tracking viable, necessary projects
Supporting transitional supply during electrification
Aligning approvals with actual system needs

Because without replacement supply, decline becomes collapse.

6. Break Export-Parity Pricing — It’s a Policy Choice, Not Physics

Here’s the quiet scam:
Australians pay global prices for Australian gas.

That only happens because policy allows it.

Reservation alone isn’t enough—you also need a domestic pricing framework for reserved gas.

Otherwise:

Supply exists
Locals still get gouged

Western Australia proved governments can intervene. Victoria’s mistake has been pretending it can’t.

The Real Fix — All of It, Not One Piece

Victoria doesn’t need a miracle. It needs coordination.

Reserve local gas.
Build infrastructure.
Electrify what makes sense.
Prioritise critical demand.
Approve viable supply.
Break export-linked pricing.

Do one without the others, and you stay stuck.

Do all of them, and Victoria stops being the last customer on a system designed for exports.